File photo: Óscar Puente, Spain's Transport Minister. Photo: La Moncloa - Gobierno de España, via Wikimedia Commons (attribution licence).

Spain is heading into a snap election with a deadly rail crash still fresh, and bettors already expect a change of government. Real-money traders give the conservative leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo an 84% chance of becoming prime minister, as our Spain Election 2026 coverage tracks.

Today also brings a test for the Socialist government, as the transport minister answers to parliament over the crash.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, Feijóo is at 84% to become Spain's next prime minister as of 4:25 a.m. ET on 3 November. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who leads the Socialist Party (PSOE), is at 12%.

That question has drawn about US$2.6 million in trading. These prices are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes of the news.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

File photo: Pedro Sánchez (left) and Alberto Núñez Feijóo at a televised election debate.

Polls Hold the Conservatives Ahead

Sigma Dos, a Spanish polling institute, put the People's Party (PP) at 31.1% and the PSOE at 24.6% in fieldwork on 29 and 30 October, published 2 November. NC Report, another Spanish pollster, has the PSOE at 25.6%.

Sigma Dos projects 133 to 139 of the 350 seats in Congress for the PP and 97 to 103 for the PSOE, which won 121 in 2023. Vox, a hard-line conservative party in third place, polls at 19.3%, or 63 to 69 seats.

The Rio Times tracker, which averages 176 polls, shows the PP at 31.3%, the PSOE at 26.6% and Vox at 19.4%. The state-run Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) pollster, in an October survey taken before the crash, had the PSOE ahead by about 12 points, 34% to 22.2%.

Why the Rail Crash Is Now a Campaign Issue

Transport Minister Óscar Puente is due before the Permanent Delegation of Congress, a committee that sits between sessions, at 11 a.m. ET today, 3 November (5 p.m. in Spain). He asked to appear himself.

An AVE high-speed train of the state operator Renfe hit a stationary train of the private operator Iryo at Urda, in Toledo province, at 3:53 a.m. ET on 28 October (8:53 a.m. in Spain), and 69 people died. Puente has called the decision of the control centre of Adif, the state rail-network operator that depends on his ministry, to let the AVE resume service “inexplicable”.

Puente offered his resignation after the crash, and Sánchez refused it as “unjust”. The PP called the appearance “insufficient” and asked for Puente to resign and for Sánchez to appear in Congress.

Vox filed a complaint at the Supreme Court, the only court that can investigate ministers, alleging negligent manslaughter and injuries.

Dates Ahead

Spain votes on Sunday, 29 November, for Congress and the Senate (the upper house), after Sánchez called the election when Congress rejected his housing decrees on 2 October. Sánchez and Feijóo have agreed to debate on Mediaset, a Spanish private TV group, on Monday, 16 November.

The PP has proposed further debates on 23 and 26 November, which are not confirmed.

What It Means for US Readers

Voters choose the 350-seat Congress, where 176 seats make a majority, and the Senate. Sigma Dos projects 196 to 208 seats for the PP and Vox together.

A conservative-led government would change who speaks for Spain, a NATO member and the euro area's fourth-largest economy, in talks with Washington. Markets, though, price a campaign that still has four weeks to run.

What Is Not Known

Puente's appearance was still ahead when this article was written, so what he tells the committee is unknown. Whether he stays in office is also unknown.

The cause of the crash is unresolved. AITAT, Spain's independent rail-accident investigator, says its work is preliminary, and a separate judicial case is under way in a local court in Orgaz, Toledo province.

The CIS and Sigma Dos differ by about 12 points on the PSOE-PP gap, and it is not known whether the post-crash shift in the polls will last.

Sources

Polymarket (market prices and volume); Sigma Dos, NC Report and CIS (polls); Congress of Deputies (committee schedule); Rio Times election tracker.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

Frequently Asked Questions

When is Spain's general election?

Spain votes on Sunday, 29 November 2026, for the 350-seat Congress and the Senate. Sánchez called it after Congress rejected his housing decrees on 2 October.

Who leads the latest polls?

In the Sigma Dos poll published on 2 November the PP has 31.1% and the PSOE 24.6%.

What do prediction markets say about the next prime minister?

As of 4:25 a.m. ET on 3 November, Polymarket puts Feijóo at 84% and Sánchez at 12%. Prices are bets rather than polls and can move quickly.

Why is Óscar Puente going to Congress today?

The transport minister answers to a parliamentary committee about the 28 October rail crash at Urda, which killed 69. He asked to appear himself.