By

Scotland political correspondent

With every day that passes, Andy Burnham's route to Number 10 is looking more and more assured.

But for a man sometimes dubbed "The King of the North" there are still plenty of unanswered questions about what that could mean for us north of the border.

In a speech on Monday, Burnham is expected to outline his vision for devolution and the economy.

This could be where we get a bit more of a steer on his plans for Scotland.

We can expect the Scottish government's current tussle with UK ministers about a second independence referendum to persist regardless of who's in Number 10.

So what does Andy Burnham say to John Swinney's demands?

This is not an issue the former mayor has spoken about much in recent years, but I did interview him in 2020 and asked about this exact topic.

There's a big caveat here – this was six years ago. We were in the midst of debates about a second EU referendum (remember that?)

At that point, the then mayor of Greater Manchester let out a sigh and told me "you just can't keep having referendum after referendum".

He warned then that such an approach – whether on Brexit or Scottish independence -meant that political divisions were not permitted to heal.

Scottish figures close to Burnham don't expect the UK government position to change on the question of a referendum under him.

But they do think he's better suited to communicating that position than Sir Keir Starmer was.

"Whether it's fair or not, the way you talk and handle yourself matters to people," one Scottish Labour MP tells me.

"You've only got a few seconds before someone swipes past the message you're trying to deliver".

And there's a hope that his time working outside London will convince voters that he "gets" Scotland more than most recent prime ministers.

It's likely that further devolution will form a key plank of Andy Burnham's offer to the UK's nations and regions.

Some aspects of this would require the co-operation of Scottish government ministers. For example, if Andy Burnham wanted to see more mayors across all parts of the UK.

But some of his allies think he could choose to devolve UK powers to a much more local level. There could be something of a leapfrog past Holyrood in this scenario.

For example, a number of areas of welfare are devolved to Holyrood, but many are retained by the UK government, such as job centres.

There are those close to the former mayor of Manchester who thinks areas like this could be extensively devolved, allowing for different systems in Glasgow, Edinburgh or The Highlands.

They believe this is "devolution with a purpose" from a leader who understands what can be done when decision-making leaves London.

But some of Burnham's previous statements in relation to Scotland may have to be addressed.

Back in 2024, he wrote a book called Head North: A Rallying Cry for a More Equal Britain.

There are a number of fairly radical policies outlined in it, including ditching whipping (where party leaders instruct their MPs how to vote) and scrapping the first-past-the-post voting system.

We'll wait and see if these sort of sweeping changes see the light of day.

But in this book he also turned his attention to the formula that dictates how much of Scotland's funding from Westminster is decided – the Barnett Formula.

He writes that it's time to "tear up" the formula.

Burnham perceived it as unfair to the English regions, and while he didn't call for Scotland to lose out financially, he made it abundantly clear that Barnett should go.

He called for a new system where funding "would be allocated to the regions and nations based on social factors and levels of need".

His team have since rowed back, making it clear that he has no plans to change Barnett.

And a spokesperson promised that Scotland will be "at the centre of any government he runs".

So, with a UK led by Andy Burnham looking increasingly likely, what do political opponents in Scotland think?

The SNP have labelled him "more of the same" and "shallow and ego-driven".

Privately, some SNP insiders concede that Andy Burnham does appear to be communicating more effectively. And - in the short term - could improve Labour's fortunes.

But there's a feeling that the fundamental challenges he faces are the same faced by Sir Keir, and that he'll be largely constrained by the same economic conditions.

There don't seem to be any Andy Burnham visits to Scotland planned.

Much of his focus at the moment will be on trying to retain the Greater Manchester mayoralty for Labour next month.

However, he is scheduled to meet with Scottish MPs later this week.

After a dismal showing in the Holyrood election last month, he'll have to convince them that he has a plan to rebuild north of the border.

Selling that message to those MPs is one thing – that's an audience who will want him to succeed.

If he reaches Downing Street, he'll then have to sell it to the Scottish public. Who may well prove to be a bit more sceptical.