VENEZUELA · POLITICS

Dinorah Figuera, an opposition politician who presided over the opposition-held National Assembly elected in 2015, has promised Venezuelans “fair, shielded elections” as new talks with the government approach. She leads the opposition delegation in a US-backed dialogue whose fourth round was announced for 11 to 15 November 2026.

The United States backs the talks, and its Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has set out a public timetable for the first steps. Our earlier report on Rubio’s timetable for a new Supreme Court gives the details.

Venezuela’s opposition says it wants a vote that nobody can rig, but the date and the rules are still unsettled.

Who Sits at the Negotiating Table

Figuera heads the opposition delegation in talks with the leadership of Venezuela’s government, which is led by the chavista movement founded by the late President Hugo Chávez. Opposite her sits Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly, who leads the government delegation.

Delcy Rodríguez has led the government as acting president since January 2026, after the United States seized Nicolás Maduro, the former president. Figuera’s delegation negotiates with the government that Delcy Rodríguez leads.

The third round closed on Wednesday, 21 October 2026, with agreements on political guarantees and legal reforms. Jorge Rodríguez then announced the fourth round for 11 to 15 November 2026.

What Figuera Promised This Week

In a post on X on Monday, 9 November 2026, Figuera wrote that Venezuelans “tendremos elecciones justas, blindadas y democracia plena”. That translates as “we will have fair, shielded elections and full democracy.”

She also thanked the United States for backing the transition. She wrote it after Rubio’s remarks in Paris.

Figuera has said she hopes presidential elections take place around late 2027 or early 2028. She added that this can happen only with guarantees for a credible vote, and no date has been set.

Hillside homes above the El Paraíso tunnel on the Francisco Fajardo highway in Caracas. File photo: Wilfredor / Wikimedia Commons (CC0).

The Roadmap Washington Describes

A senior US State Department official described a roadmap on Monday, 26 October 2026. The country would first renew the Supreme Court (the TSJ), then the National Electoral Council (the CNE), and then Delcy Rodríguez would declare the presidency vacant.

That declaration starts a six-month period to hold a presidential election. The United States expects it in 2027, while another opposition politician has urged that the new court’s magistrates be chosen lawfully.

Rubio said in Paris this week, at a meeting of G7 foreign ministers (the club of seven wealthy democracies), that new Supreme Court justices should be in office by mid-December if the timetable holds. He added that the new electoral council should follow shortly after.

María Corina Machado, the opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, returned to Venezuela on Sunday, 25 October 2026, after almost ten months away. Her return came four days after the third round of talks closed.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket, a prediction market where users trade real-money contracts, lists a market called “Venezuela presidential election scheduled by…?” with about US$678,000 traded across all its dates, but only about US$7,600 on the 31 March 2027 contract. On Tuesday, 10 November 2026, at 1:52 p.m. ET, it priced a 32.0% chance that an election is scheduled by 31 March 2027.

The same market priced 7.5% for a date set by 31 December 2026 (about US$171,000 traded) and 0.9% by 30 November 2026. A second market, “Next Venezuelan presidential election winner”, has about US$71,000 traded.

In that market, María Corina Machado stood at 68.5%, Delcy Rodríguez at 17.5% and Jorge Rodríguez at 5.3%. These prices are real-money bets, not polls, and we use Polymarket only for this article.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for You

For a reader in the United States, these talks matter because Washington backs them and its top diplomat has set a public timetable. The next markers are the fourth round of talks and the court appointments expected by mid-December, if the timetable holds.

What Is Not Known

No election date is set, and nobody yet knows who the new justices and electoral council members will be. It is also unclear how Venezuelans abroad, about 7 million according to Rubio, could vote.

The fourth round is announced to run until Sunday, 15 November 2026, and its results, which we follow on our Venezuela news hub, will show whether the roadmap holds. Rubio’s mid-December date for the new court is conditional on the timetable holding.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is Dinorah Figuera?

Figuera is an opposition politician who presided over the opposition-held National Assembly elected in 2015. She now heads the opposition delegation in the US-backed dialogue with Venezuela’s government.

When is the next round of talks?

Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly, announced the fourth round for 11 to 15 November 2026. It was announced when the third round closed on Wednesday, 21 October.

What does “shielded elections” mean?

In Figuera’s Spanish post the word is “blindadas”, which means shielded. Our reading is that it means protected against fraud or tampering.

Is there an election date?

No. Figuera hopes presidential elections take place around late 2027 or early 2028, but only with guarantees for a credible vote.

Sources: statements by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and a senior US State Department official, Polymarket (polymarket.com), the dialogue delegations’ public statements, and Dinorah Figuera’s public post on X.