Lithuania's right-wing parties, including the emerging political movement led by former presidential candidate and current MP Ignas Vegele, are targeting voters dissatisfied with both the established political parties and the centre-right Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD).

Yet comparing the National Alliance (Nacionalinis susivienijimas), Nemuno Ausra ("Dawn of Nemunas"), and Vegele's still-forming party is not straightforward, as each occupies a different position within Lithuania's party system.

The National Alliance has the longest history. Officially founded in 2020, its roots extend back to the Vilnius Forum, established in 2016, which later evolved into the Nation Forum. Despite nearly a decade of political activity, the party has remained outside parliament, failing to clear the 5 percent threshold in national elections. Its visibility increased only after Vytautas Sinica won a single-member constituency seat in the 2024 parliamentary elections.

Nemuno Ausra, by contrast, was founded only in 2023 but entered parliament with remarkable ease a year later. Winning roughly 15 percent of the proportional vote, it secured 20 seats and became the third-largest parliamentary force. More importantly, it joined the governing coalition.

Its participation in government was accompanied by a series of scandals, largely triggered by statements made by party leader Remigijus Zemaitaitis. His controversial remarks repeatedly provoked criticism from both the public and political opponents.

The Social Democrats, the largest coalition partner, proved the most tolerant of Zemaitaitis's behaviour. Their willingness to overlook repeated controversies was likely driven by political pragmatism. Maintaining a comfortable parliamentary majority enabled them to pass legislation more easily, while Nemuno Ausra's parliamentary faction generally voted alongside them.

It is more difficult to explain why the Social Democrats decided in early June to end their coalition agreement with Nemuno Ausra. The most plausible explanation is the declining popularity of both the governing party and Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene's government. Eventually, Social Democratic leaders appear to have concluded that both the coalition with Zemaitaitis and the prime minister herself had become political liabilities.

Now that Nemuno Ausra has moved into opposition, the key question is whether it can retain its voter support. This creates an interesting political contest involving Ignas Vegele's new party. Many political scientists believe it will compete for the same electorate as Nemuno Ausra. Can Vegele attract these voters? If not, questions about the viability of his political project will inevitably arise.

Vegele first emerged as a political figure during the COVID-19 pandemic while serving as chairman of the Lithuanian Bar Council. He gained national prominence through his criticism of the government's pandemic policies, particularly among citizens sceptical of vaccination. At the same time, it should be acknowledged that the government was dealing with an unprecedented crisis and inevitably made mistakes.

In this way, the lawyer unexpectedly became a politician. His ambitions grew rapidly ahead of the 2024 presidential election, in which he finished a respectable third. Later that year, he entered parliament as a candidate of the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union. However, serving as an ordinary MP apparently did not satisfy him, prompting his decision to launch a new political party. Many political analysts remain sceptical about its prospects.

Questions have also been raised about the future of Nemuno Ausra itself. Some observers argue that it resembles a political movement centred on a charismatic leader rather than a fully institutionalised party. Its parliamentary faction forms its core, making predictions of future fragmentation difficult to dismiss. Individual MPs may be tempted to join other parliamentary groups, particularly the Social Democrats, who would benefit from strengthening their own ranks.

While both Nemuno Ausra and Vegele's project face uncertainty, the National Alliance appears to enjoy greater long-term stability. Unlike Nemuno Ausra, it is not built around a single dominant personality. It has existed for years and brings together individuals who share broadly conservative and Christian democratic values.

Its membership is also notable for its educational profile. Many members hold university degrees, and a significant number have earned doctorates. They tend to view politics as a long-term commitment to the nation and the state rather than a vehicle for personal advancement.

For that reason, the National Alliance may be better positioned than its competitors to survive political fluctuations and continue developing as an organised political force. Whether it can translate organisational stability into broader electoral success, however, remains an open question.