1. The women vote

Receiving a fillip from the NDA government’s attempts to push through reservation for women in legislature last month, BJP insiders said the narrative around opposition parties being anti-women found “a lot of resonance” on the ground in West Bengal.

Party insiders said while they were still in the process of assessing its impact, the women’s vote in the state was expected to have swung up to “at least five percent” in the BJP’s favour in the state, where the proportion of women voters is almost similar to that of men.

There were 3.16 crore women voters compared to 3.28 crore male voters among the 6.44 crore electors following the purification of electoral rolls as part of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR). In 2021, the female-male voter ratio had been 3.59 crore against 3.74 crore. In 2021, the TMC had claimed 48.02% of the vote share compared to the BJP’s 38.1% and the Congress’s 10%.

2. Wooing government employees

Similar to Delhi, home to a significant chunk of both Central and state government employees, sources said that anti-incumbency, “denial of rights” to government employees, and the Seventh Pay Commission seemed to have successfully struck a chord with “between 20 to 50 lakh” voters. This included both existing Central and state government employees, as well as young voters aspiring for government jobs.

During the launch of the BJP’s “Poribortan Yatra” in the state, Union Home Minister Amit Shah promised the implementation of the Seventh Pay Commission in the state within 45 days of coming to power and filling vacancies in government jobs.

West Bengal also had the highest proportion of service electors on the rolls compared to the three other states and the Union Territory of Puducherry which went to the polls: 1.08 lakh compared to a little over 67,000 in Tamil Nadu, more than 63,000 in Assam and a little more than 54,000 in Kerala.

3. Centre-led development

From the supposed non-implementation of the BJP-led Central government’s flagship welfare schemes to lack of public and industrial infrastructure in the state under the TMC government, party insiders said the Prime Minister Narendra Modi versus Mamata Banerjee narrative had borne fruit. This was also pitched to voters in the capital in 2025, against Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal.

According to party insiders, the Centre-led development and infrastructure push, with PM Modi’s assurance to boot at almost each of his over one-dozen public events in the state, had drawn both the middle class as well as first-time voter cohorts.

According to ECI statistics, while there were 5.23 lakh first-time electors, there were an estimated 1.31 crore voters aged between 20 and 29 on the electoral rolls this year. This cohort was specifically targeted by the BJP with a dedicated outreach both on social media, as well as on the ground.

4. Safety, security deployment, anti-incumbency

In a state known for political violence during elections, BJP insiders credited the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh’s ability to mobilise “voters irrespective of their ideology”, thus “instilling confidence” in the average voter to exercise their franchise “without any fear” in who they wanted to vote for. They also noted the unprecedented deployment of Central forces in the state.

According to the ECI, 500 Companies of CAPFs (Central Armed Police Forces) shall continue to remain deployed in West Bengal for post poll law and order duties even after the completion of counting, till further orders. Additionally, the commission had announced, 200 Companies of CAPFs shall be retained for security arrangements of EVM/strongrooms and counting centre and remain deployed till the completion of counting in the state.

This assurance, issued by no less than both the Prime Minister and Union Home Minister, was, according to insiders, also able to land a simultaneous blow on the TMC in terms of the “questionable” law and order situtation in West Bengal, as well as challenge it in terms of incumbency, given cases such the RG Kar rape and murder case.

5. SIR/outsider narrative

BJP insiders credited the SIR exercise with having ensured that “only bona fide voters” were able to exercise their franchise, no matter whose tally their votes were added to.

Additionally, the party fanned the narrative around a crusade for the purification of electoral rolls, which were allegedly rife with “outsiders”. The new criterion of ‘logical discrepancies’ led to the removal of over 27 lakh names from the state’s electoral roll and over 30 lakh more votes polled, compared to the 2021 elections.