After the significant mass uprising of 2024, Bangladesh has had two governments, yet there has still been no bilateral visit between the heads of government of Bangladesh and India. A possible India visit by Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Tarique Rahman came under discussion ahead of the recently held BRICS summit. In the end, neither the Bangladeshi prime minister nor any representative from Dhaka attended the summit in New Delhi. 

It could be said that Bangladesh’s absence from the BRICS summit came amid a broader recalibration of Dhaka-Delhi relations following the 2024 political transition. After the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led government assumed office in February this year, diplomatic engagement between Dhaka and New Delhi has increased. Both sides have expressed their willingness to improve relations. However, political trust and some unresolved issues continue to remain as challenges to further advancing ties. 

The formal position of the Bangladesh government is that the invitation to the BRICS summit was extended to Bangladesh as the chair of BIMSTEC, not to Rahman as prime minister. State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir clarified that Rahman’s first visit to India should not take place through a multilateral conference but rather be a full-fledged bilateral visit. Kobir also said that Dhaka would consider such a visit only when a “conducive environment” is created.

New Delhi responded that Rahman received two separate invitations: one for a bilateral visit and another to participate in the BRICS outreach session as the chair of BIMSTEC. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi first invited his Bangladeshi counterpart, along with his family, in February immediately after the BNP-led government took office. 

In August, New Delhi reportedly made preparations for a possible visit by Rahman, but it ultimately did not take place. Media reports now suggest that discussions are underway to facilitate his visit in November this year.

Bangladesh is not a member of BRICS, but because this year’s BRICS summit was held in South Asia, Bangladesh’s invitation as the chair of BIMSTEC and its participation in the outreach session were relevant. The main benefit to Dhaka would have been the opportunity to meet global leaders and expand diplomatic engagement.

Many countries sent their foreign ministers to the BRICS summit. Why did Bangladesh decline to send any representative? 

The explanation provided by Kobir regarding the expectation of a “conducive environment” and ensuring “mutual respect” is relevant here. Bangladesh’s High Commissioner to New Delhi, Riyaz Hamidullah, also said that Rahman could not attend the BRICS summit in India due to “certain circumstances” in the overall bilateral relationship.

Rahman’s government has made a commitment to move away from the previous framework of diplomacy and pursue a “Bangladesh First” policy. Thus, while the prime minister has not set foot in India since taking office, Rahman has already visited Malaysia and China and is visiting the United States for the U.N. General Assembly meeting this week. 

The bilateral relationship with India became asymmetric during the previous Awami League regime. Issues such as border killings and alleged interference in domestic politics have also triggered public resentment toward India. The new government has to consider not only improving relations with New Delhi but also ensuring dignity and domestic political acceptance.

Many Awami League leaders convicted by Dhaka’s courts are currently in India and have been involved in various forms of political campaigning. Sheikh Hasina, the ousted prime minister of Bangladesh, delivered a virtual address from Delhi on August 5, which further deepened the trust deficit between the two countries. Bangladesh has demanded the extradition of Hasina, as well as the return of those allegedly involved in the killing of Sharif Osman Hadi, the murdered spokesperson of a platform called Inqilab Mancha. 

Recent developments suggest that Hasina’s presence in India and her political statements from there remain at the center of the current difficulties in Bangladesh-India relations. New Delhi believes that political engagement can create a pathway to resolve existing disputes. Dhaka, on the other hand, wants a conducive political environment and mutual respect to be established before a visit.

India has its own concerns about the future trajectory of relations. Bangladesh’s growing engagement with China, including discussions over infrastructure cooperation, has drawn attention in New Delhi due to the strategic importance of the region. For India, the challenge is not only rebuilding ties with the new government in Dhaka but also navigating a changing geopolitical environment in South Asia.

Creating a favorable political and trustworthy environment requires not only diplomatic efforts from both sides but also a more supportive surrounding atmosphere. For instance, some Indian media outlets and political figures continue to spread disinformation and misleading narratives about Bangladesh, particularly regarding the treatment of religious minorities. Such trends have increased in Indian media since the fall of the Awami League government. 

Bangladesh’s law and order situation has also been subject to comments by Indian political figures that Dhaka considers inaccurate, while some Indian media present an exaggerated picture of developments on the ground. It is worth noting that Bangladesh ranks better than India in both the Reporters Without Borders (RSF) World Press Freedom Index and the Global Terrorism Index of the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP).

In the long run, distance between Bangladesh and India is unlikely, meaning Rahman may visit India sooner or later. The two countries need to continue working together. Resolving issues of mutual interest remains essential.  

Bangladesh’s overall relationship with India should not be viewed solely through the lens of recent political circumstances. The relationship between the two countries is deeply rooted in economic, social, and cultural connections between their peoples. 

Bangladesh’s absence from the BRICS Summit will not determine the future of Dhaka-Delhi relations. The key question now is how both governments create a pathway for improving ties – one that accommodates mutual interests, political sensitivities, and strategic realities.