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A central element of Trump’s emerging Iran deal is a step-by-step approach that would see the Strait of Hormuz reopened followed by Tehran getting economic rewards each time it meets US demands.

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That sequencing formalizes a cautious approach designed to prevent the White House from getting caught out as it tries to end the war. But it also means there will be many opportunities for the deal to fall apart.

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“Any deal that kicks the can down the road on the most critical issues and is conditions-based would put the US and Iran exactly where they’ve been: a fragile ceasefire in name only that is routinely tested and prone to violence,” said Becca Wasser, defense lead for Bloomberg Economics. 

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A person familiar with the deliberations, who asked not to be named while discussing sensitive matters, said the memorandum would be open to interpretation in certain areas, including what the reopening of Hormuz would mean in practice.

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Another diplomat familiar with the talks said the US and its allies would aim to ensure normal levels of shipments through the strait within about a month of an agreement being signed. That may be complicated by the high likelihood of Iran having placed mines in the strait, which the UK and France are preparing to help clear.

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Roughly 140 ships passed through the narrow chokepoint each day before the conflict erupted. The number of vessels has crept up in recent weeks, but is still far below pre-conflict levels.

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Despite continuing uncertainty, energy prices continued to fall on Friday following Trump’s announcement a day earlier that he had canceled plans for new strikes on Iran. 

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Brent futures fell as much as 5.1% to trade at the lowest level since the early days of the war, while European gas slumped as much as 8.4%. While the global benchmark is still up almost 50% this year, it’s fallen from a high of $125 in late April.

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Another potential sticking point is Israel, which is not part of the negotiations for the interim deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated he’d prefer more strikes to further degrade Iran’s military.

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Israel’s minimum expectation is now that an end-of-war accord ensures highly enriched uranium is removed from Iran, according to a person familiar with the matter. 

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Araghchi said Israel was an “enemy” of the proposed deal with the US and that it was seeking to disrupt it.

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Until Iran responds again, it will be hard to determine whether the latest maneuvering is a fresh step toward a longer-term peace or just another short-lived promise. 

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The senior administration official suggested that this time was different. US diplomatic efforts have been an all-hands-on-deck process over the past 24 hours involving officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, the senior US official said. 

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—With assistance from Eric Martin, Salma El Wardany, Fiona MacDonald, Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Dan Williams, Josh Wingrove and Hadriana Lowenkron.

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