The American Gaming Association has a new number for the prediction-market debate: $5.1 billion. According to its tracker, 18- to 20-year-olds — below the legal sportsbook age in nearly every state — have generated that much Kalshi trading volume this year.

In a statement to ReadWrite, AGA CEO Bill Miller said:

“Sports betting is a form of entertainment, yet so-called ‘prediction markets’ dangerously advertise it as investing. Given that 18- to 20-year-olds are driving billions in sports betting volume on Kalshi, it is crucial that everyone recognize this distinction and understand that on ‘prediction markets,’ users are often betting against sophisticated Wall Street operations — not their peers.

"Most parents and grandparents don’t realize that ‘prediction markets’ are offering a backdoor into sports betting in jurisdictions where the legal betting age is 21. This means their freshman son or daughter may be prohibited from entering a legal sportsbook but can simply pull out their phone and use Kalshi to bet on football.

"This defiance of state law is a major reason why so-called ‘prediction markets’ have drawn the ire of 44 state attorneys general, state legislatures and regulators across the country.”

A Kalshi trader is taking “read the fine print” to federal court. Nicolas Pernas alleges the platform wrongly resolved a Trump–Justin Trudeau market as “No,” despite terms saying it would pay “Yes” if the leaders spoke directly. Pernas claims he held 1,173,968 positions worth $1.17 million if resolved his way.

The complaint also alleges Kalshi prematurely closed the market and later prevented him from withdrawing roughly $24,293 in cash.  Pernas is suing for breach of contract, fraud and other claims. In prediction markets, apparently even the meaning of “meet” can end up meeting a judge.

New York’s attorney general isn’t exactly impressed with the CFTC’s attempt to ride to Kalshi’s rescue. In a new filing, the state argues the regulator’s August emergency order should receive “no weight,” saying courts — not the CFTC — get the final word on whether Kalshi’s sports contracts are swaps and whether state gambling laws are preempted.

New York gets particularly spicy later, questioning whether losing access to sports wagers — or betting on Taylor Swift meeting the Pope — really constitutes a market “emergency.” Its bottom line: the CFTC can’t make allegedly unlawful offerings legal by administrative decree. 

Crypto.com’s prediction market operation is reportedly having a personnel market of its own — and “depart” appears to be trading pretty high. Sportico reports that multiple executives have left CDNA, the company’s U.S. derivatives exchange subsidiary formerly known as Nadex, amid layoffs and broader changes at the business.

One departing executive reportedly wished colleagues the “autonomy” needed to take the operation to the next level. The shake-up arrives as prediction markets face growing regulatory scrutiny and increasingly fierce competition. For Crypto.com, which has pushed aggressively into sports event contracts, the next prediction may be who’s still sitting in the executive suite.

Kalshi has a pitch for businesses tired of blaming the weather: hedge it instead. New research from the prediction market argues its exchange-traded weather contracts could help companies offset revenue losses from rain, snow and temperature swings. One Los Angeles ice cream shop found sales fell about 20% below 70°F, while its Kalshi hedges reportedly paid $1,500 monthly — equivalent to 43% of rent.

Kalshi also says its daily weather markets have demonstrated strong calibration across roughly 70,000 resolved contracts per horizon. Apparently “everyone talks about the weather” now has a financial follow-up: “but did you hedge it?”

Republican congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout apparently took “bet on yourself” a little too literally. Kalshi says the North Carolina candidate bought less than $1,000 in contracts tied to her own election after entering the race — a problem, since exchange rules prohibit people who can influence an outcome from trading on it. 

Buckhout cooperated with Kalshi’s investigation and settled the case, receiving a three-year suspension and a $2,589.96 financial penalty. Buckhout has since called the trade a “dumb mistake.” Her prediction-market career may be temporarily benched, but the actual contest continues: she’s running against Democratic Rep. Don Davis in November.

Kalshi is heading to Flushing Meadows, and apparently watching the tennis wasn’t interactive enough already. The prediction market has signed a multi-year deal with the USTA to become the US Open’s first exclusive prediction market partner, starting with the 2026 tournament. Kalshi branding will appear around the grounds, with real-time market data eventually planned for tournament coverage.

There are some lines it won’t cross: markets involving umpire decisions, injuries and code violations are off limits. Kalshi is also working with tennis integrity officials on data sharing and market surveillance — because nobody wants “double fault” taking on an entirely new meaning.

Canada’s securities watchdogs have looked at sports and entertainment prediction markets and decided they don’t belong in the investment aisle. The Canadian Securities Administrators and CIRO say such event contracts should not be regulated under securities and derivatives legislation, while CIRO says its dealer members shouldn’t be approved to trade them. 

For now, authorized dealers can facilitate only a limited selection of contracts tied to economic, environmental or financial indicators on certain U.S.-regulated exchanges. Other prediction-market categories remain under review, so Canada hasn’t closed the book entirely. But for sports contracts, regulators have made their position decidedly less than maple-syrup sweet.

Kalshi wants the CFTC to reach for the scalpel, not the sledgehammer, when policing prediction markets. 

In comments to the regulator, the exchange argued manipulation concerns should be addressed by pursuing misconduct rather than restricting legitimate event contracts. Kalshi also backed guardrails for “mention markets,” including barring speakers, speechwriters and others with advance knowledge from trading contracts they could influence. The company says similar restrictions already exist on its platform and wants minimum standards applied across exchanges. On corporate event contracts, Kalshi also urged regulators to avoid automatically treating products linked to stock-price movements as securities-based contracts.

George Santos has officially found a market he can’t trade on anymore. 

Kalshi permanently suspended the former New York congressman and ordered him to pay $71,356 after concluding he manipulated contracts tied to whether he would attend the State of the Union. Kalshi says Santos traded on an outcome he could personally influence, made misleading public statements about his plans and ultimately earned $17,839.57 from the affected markets. 

Santos, unsurprisingly, didn’t leave quietly, responding to his lifetime ban by questioning how long Kalshi itself would be around. The exchange also cited manipulation, fraud and cooperation-related rule violations.