As Uzbekistan celebrated its 35th independence anniversary this week, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev announced seven national programs for the years ahead. The programs focus on socio-economic development and conspicuously omit any reform related to political pluralism, press freedom, freedom of conscience, or other democratic elements. 

Mirziyoyev has prioritized areas viewed as critical to retaining popular support for his government. The first is improving public education, with a special focus on extending compulsory education to age six, supporting private kindergartens, and having at least ten universities ranked in the top 1,000 higher education institutions in the world. Uzbekistan has one of the highest numbers of schoolchildren in the region, with 6.8 million students and 600,000 teachers in public mandatory schools alone. 

The next few national programs announced by Mirziyoyev also concern socio-economic well-being: improving public health and increasing longevity; transitioning to a high technology economy, and ensuring high labor productivity as well as changing public attitudes toward the environment and addressing environmental challenges. 

The fifth national program is set to ensure judicial independence and the rule of law. The Diplomat recently reported that one of the country’s new laws allows the president’s daughter, who heads the presidential administration, to be directly involved in shaping the judicial system while having lifetime legal immunity for her actions with no accountability. A few areas – cybercrime, drug trafficking, and human trafficking – are singled out for additional attention but concrete steps in this regard have not been outlined.

The sixth program Mirziyoyev announced identified mahallas as the “‘main customer (or commissioner)’ of development.” This program basically aims to further empower mahallas along with slightly altering the district budgeting system. Mahallas are unique self-governing institutions established at the neighborhood level. Each household is part of a mahalla. As of 2021, there were 9,251 mahallas across the country. 

“The mood of our people, the well-being of families, the dreams and aspirations of young people, and the initiative of entrepreneurs are first and foremost reflected in the neighborhood,” Mirziyoyev said in his speech. “Mood” is an odd word to pick – not financial stability, safety, employment or other aspects of socio-economic life. It reflects mahallas’ role as an observer of citizens’ sentiment (and hopefully their needs too). 

Historically, mahalla institutions have played a distributing role rather than a commissioning one, carrying government policies down and out to the people rather than gathering and feeding social sentiments upward into the system. Mirziyoyev is now saying that mahallas ought to be “the main customer (commissioner) of social development.” While this is, in one sense, a form of decentralization where citizens might participate in some degree of decision-making, it is not a genuine political decentralization. It appears that mahallas will report upward the social and financial needs on the ground and the budget allocation will be made accordingly. The president’s announcement noted, “District budgets, investment programs, and infrastructure projects are developed based on the needs of neighborhoods.”

But mahallas still will not have a final say in anything. They will not receive full control over their own budgets. Ultimate decisions on budget allocations will remain at the hands of the central government. The proposed change, if implemented, will result in participatory or needs-based local governance, but does not grant fiscal independence. 

The last area of development focuses on a peaceful foreign policy and economic diplomacy.

The proposed national development programs place emphasis on socio-economic areas. These are safe areas wherein changes, minor or even radical, will not threaten or challenge the political regime. Instead, increased attention to these spheres will increase Mirziyoyev’s popularity and thus further consolidate power in the existing government. 

The programs as outlined do not address areas in which Mirziyoyev initially promised reforms, particularly freedom of expression. His early promises on supporting journalists and allowing the press to become a true watchdog has undergone a clear backslide. The Diplomat has continuously reported on waves of arrests of local bloggers, including popular religious scholar and blogger, Mubashshir Ahmad. Not only journalists or bloggers, but ordinary citizens are also regularly charged with crimes and sentenced to prison for expressing their personal religious views, sharing religious songs online that are not approved by the government or for saying anything negative about the president or his family. The recent law that expanded the authority of the presidential administration,  headed by Mirziyoyev’s first daughter, Saida Mirziyoyeva, also prohibits “insulting the honor and dignity” of its officials. The law does not explicitly differentiate between healthy criticism and insult. 

The Mirziyoyev administration’s priorities are clear in its announced programs: to keep average people happy by ensuring their basic needs are covered. Anything else, particularly those related to freedom of speech, mobilization, or independent teaching and practice of religion that can eventually challenge the status quo, has been swept under the carpet.