After Tuesday’s midterm election, who knew that the Mississippi U.S. Senate race would become a point of struggle over whether Republicans can salvage another Senate seat? If the Republicans fail to do so, this will be the first turnover to Democrat control for Mississippi in 32 years, and will further strengthen the already sizeable Democrat majority. 

Sen. Cindy Hyde Smith (R-MS) and her Democrat opponent, District Attorney Scott Colom, literally have 65 votes separating them, with Colom in the lead. What will tip the balance? Absentee and affidavit ballots, which are still being counted. According to Mississippi election law, these can be collected and counted up to five days after the election.  

At 11:45 a.m. Wednesday, with more than 945,000 votes counted across the state, the candidates are separated by only 65 votes, with Colom in the lead. The Associated Press reports 96% of the votes have been counted. In an interview with CNN, a representative of the Colom campaign said there is believed to be up to 15,000 affidavit votes that have yet to be counted. And the counting of those affidavit votes might not be complete until next week, as according to the Mississippi Secretary of State, a “voter casting an affidavit ballot because he/she did not present an acceptable form of photo ID may not have his/her ballot rejected for this reason if he/she presents an acceptable form of photo ID in the Circuit or Municipal Clerk’s Office within five business days after Election Day.” 

At 3 a.m., the New York Times live forecast for the race showed the result as a “tossup,” with an estimated margin of victory of +0.2 for Hyde-Smith. The range of outcomes showed anything between Hyde-Smith winning by 1.6 points and Colom by 1.1 as possible.

This now very real scenario is at the center of the 5-4 Supreme Court decision in Watson v. RNC, where SCOTUS held that federal Election Day statutes do not prohibit states from counting ballots postmarked by Election Day but received afterward under state law. 

As RedState reported:

Specifically, SCOTUS holds that federal election-day statutes do NOT preempt a Mississippi law that allows mail-in ballots to be counted as long as they are postmarked by, and received within, five days of Election Day. 

RedState further reported on Justice Samuel Alito’s dissent:

In his dissent, Justice Alito said the decision, “creates a serious risk of further undermining public confidence in our elections and our system of self-government.”

And here we are. 

Colom and his supporters are declaring victory, while simultaneously embedding the narrative that, should he lose, it can only be because of voter suppression.

⚠️ Republicans are taking the first step in a likely bid to throw out votes in Mississippi’s extremely close U.S. Senate race. A victory for Democrat Scott Colom would represent a significant upset in the state’s Republican-dominated politics: https://t.co/d1z0ksdiSi

— Democracy Docket (@DemocracyDocket) November 6, 2026

Attorneys for the Colom camp responded to the RNC’s demand with a letter claiming the move is “unlawful”.

NEW: Today, legal counsel for the Scott Colom for Senate campaign issued a letter to all 82 Mississippi Counties, their Election Commissioners, and their Circuit Clerks to make clear the NRSC’s and Cindy Hyde-Smith’s demand to segregate affidavit ballots is unlawful. READ⬇️

— Gerard (@Gerard_Hen) November 5, 2026

Magnolia Tribune Editor-at-Large, Frank Corder, posted an excerpt from the letter in an X post:

Democrat Scott Colom’s campaign on the @MSGOP and the National Republican Senatorial Committee sending letters to County Election Commissioners and Circuit Clerks in Mississippi demanding they separate and preserve all affidavit ballots. “This desperate stunt from national Republicans is what you do when you know you’re about to lose a race. We’re confident that when every lawful ballot is counted, Scott Colom will be Mississippi’s next U.S. senator.”

You can read the letter here.

On the other hand, the Mississippi GOP, the RNC Election Integrity Unit, and Hyde-Smith’s campaign are making preemptive moves to secure the affidavit ballots from each county, and have them sequestered before they are counted.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is sending a letter to County Election Commissioners and Circuit Clerks in Mississippi demanding they separate and preserve all affidavit ballots. The @MSGOP is holding a press conference in Hinds County in a little over an hour. https://t.co/iJvE6Cofgu

— Frank Corder (@frankcorder) November 5, 2026

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is sending a letter to County Election Commissioners and Circuit Clerks in Mississippi demanding they separate and preserve all affidavit ballots.

The @MSGOP is holding a press conference in Hinds County in a little over an hour.

The demand letter detailed three directives for treatment of the affidavit ballots. In brief:

1. Maintain all affidavit ballots separately from regular and absentee ballots.

2. Document each ballot’s disposition.

3. Preserve all associated materials and custody records. 

Here’s the full letter the National Republican Senatorial Committee sent to County Election Commissioners and Circuit Clerks in Mississippi regarding the Senate race. @MSGOP https://t.co/ruSEABOlLy

— Frank Corder (@frankcorder) November 5, 2026

On Thursday, Mississippi Republican Party Chairman and RNC General Counsel Mike Hurst held the presser, and declared:

The Mississippi Republican Party and the RNC have built an incredible election integrity program for exact moments like this.

The MSGOP has been working closely with Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith’s campaign, the RNC, the NRSC and the NRLA to ensure that every vote is counted and every vote is protected throughout this process. 

WATCH:

🚨 The RNC and @MSGOP have lawyers and observers on the ground in Mississippi. RNC General Counsel @MikeHurstMS: “The Mississippi Republican Party and the RNC have built an incredible election integrity operation for moments like this…” https://t.co/95n5RRZ10e

— RNC Election Integrity (@RNCVoteProtect) November 5, 2026

Hurst further stated:

Our attorneys and observers, right now, are documenting developments, preserving facts and evidence, and recording every step of what occurred on Election Day, and what has happened since Election Day. So that we will be ready, if necessary, to avail ourselves of every legal option at our disposal if there is evidence that the law has been violated. 

At the end of the day, if the facts show that our laws were not followed, we will be ready to act swiftly, and we will not hesitate to hold election officials accountable.

WATCH:

In other words the Mississippi Secretary of State purging 130,000+ people from voter rolls AND Ty Pinkins was supposed to be enough to STEAL the election and they still lost. They do not understand how Colom still was able to win and by thousands of votes. pic.twitter.com/mZiZeD4Vq6

— SheLovesThee 🎀 (@SheLoves_Thee) November 5, 2026

Hyde-Smith’s campaign posted this to her X account.

Cindy Hyde-Smith is going to represent Mississippi in the United States Senate for the next six years. We believe thousands of votes remain to be counted from dozens of Republican counties, and we are confident those votes will reinforce her path to victory. Election officials are continuing the normal process of counting outstanding ballots, including absentee ballots. They must have the time to complete that work and ensure every lawful ballot is accurately counted and every Mississippian’s voice is heard. We expect Democratic lawyers to pull out every stop, and we are prepared. Our focus is on completing the count and returning Cindy Hyde-Smith to the Senate to keep fighting for Mississippi values.

— Cindy Hyde-Smith (@cindyhydesmith) November 5, 2026

Cindy Hyde-Smith is going to represent Mississippi in the United States Senate for the next six years. We believe thousands of votes remain to be counted from dozens of Republican counties, and we are confident those votes will reinforce her path to victory.

Election officials are continuing the normal process of counting outstanding ballots, including absentee ballots. They must have the time to complete that work and ensure every lawful ballot is accurately counted and every Mississippian’s voice is heard.

We expect Democratic lawyers to pull out every stop, and we are prepared. Our focus is on completing the count and returning Cindy Hyde-Smith to the Senate to keep fighting for Mississippi values.

This is a developing story. RedState will supply updates as they become available.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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