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Kalshi battles regulators, Novig sues Wisconsin, Polymarket faces banking scrutiny, today in prediction market news LIVE

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Today in prediction market news, we’re following another busy day for Kalshi, including its escalating geofencing fight with Nevada regulators, a Connecticut federal court’s rejection of its bid for an injunction pending appeal, and sports-mention markets becoming temporarily unavailable amid a federal investigation. We’ll also track Novig’s lawsuit against Wisconsin, JPMorgan’s reported decision to end its banking relationship with Polymarket over regulatory concerns, Trump’s meeting with crypto and prediction market executives, and breaking developments across prediction markets, regulation, crypto, and sports event trading throughout the day.

Live Updated 4 hours ago

Kalshi blasts past $18B in August volume

suswati suswati 1:21 pm

Kalshi has already surpassed $18 billion in monthly trading volume in August, according to data shared by KalshiData, with the month only halfway through when the figure was recorded.

The chart shows just how quickly activity has accelerated this year, rising from under $10 billion in January to more than $40 billion in July.

August still has plenty of runway left, too.

JUST IN: @Kalshi has already surpassed $18B in Monthly Trading Volume this month pic.twitter.com/eN3iULEqd9

— KalshiData (@kalshidata) August 16, 2026

Kalshi adds maker fees to combo trades

suswati suswati 1:20 pm

Kalshi is tweaking the economics of its increasingly important combo markets, and retail market makers may want to check the small print.

According to an update highlighted by Quant Chad, Kalshi is introducing maker fees on combo trades, alongside changes to post-only mode and how fees are applied to rapidly executed orders. The poster argues the changes could make retail market making considerably less attractive while boosting Kalshi’s revenue.

With combo trades reportedly accounting for a hefty chunk of platform volume, the change could matter.

Kalshi just added Maker fees on Combos

This is a huge revenue increase for Kalshi but a huge loss for retail user.

- Polymarket has 0% makers fees + maker rebates enabled for all.

- Kalshi now has 0.44% makers fees + makers rebates only for official market makers

combos are… pic.twitter.com/8OjffRs7O4

— Quant Chad (@Autonomous_Chad) August 16, 2026

Google has decided Kalshi is sports betting

suswati suswati 1:18 pm

Kalshi has spent considerable time, money and legal paperwork arguing that it operates a federally regulated prediction market rather than a sportsbook.

Google, apparently, did not get the memo.

An AI search result shared by Dustin Gouker labels Kalshi a “sports betting company,” while simultaneously describing it as a prediction market platform. The snippet also says sports betting accounts for more than 90% of activity on the platform.

Even though the majority of Kalshi’s battles with gambling regulators is addressing this very issue.

Courts may still be debating the terminology. Google seems to have already placed its bet.

Google has no chill pic.twitter.com/Yetoy4UmpI

— Dustin Gouker (@DustinGouker) August 17, 2026

Polymarket wants you to bet on Squirtle

suswati suswati 1:15 pm

Prediction markets have officially entered their Pokémon era.

Polymarket has launched a market asking whether the price of a Squirtle trading card will rise or fall by August 31, bringing collectible card prices into its ever-expanding betting universe. At the time of the post, traders gave Squirtle a 38% chance of finishing higher, with “Down” trading at 62 cents.

Apparently, catching ’em all is no longer enough. 

🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Squirtle Price Up/Down on August 31?https://t.co/MMhzRl7iVe

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 16, 2026

Prediction markets are heading to the White House

suswati suswati 1:12 pm

Prediction markets are getting a rather prestigious invitation: the White House.

Crypto and prediction market executives are expected to gather in Washington on Wednesday, August 19, with President Donald Trump now expected to attend alongside CFTC Chair Michael Selig. The meeting comes just one day before the CFTC’s inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee gathering, putting regulation firmly on the menu.

The original Politico report said the guest list was still being finalized, with traditional finance potentially joining the party too.

President Donald Trump is expected to attend a meeting at the White House next Wednesday that will gather together high-level executives from crypto companies and prediction-market venues, according to a source https://t.co/UBL5fP3RLB

— Bloomberg (@business) August 14, 2026

JPMorgan and Polymarket have a banking breakup

suswati suswati 1:09 pm

Polymarket apparently found out that sometimes the house closes your bank account.

JPMorgan reportedly ended its banking relationship with the prediction market in 2025, telling Polymarket to find another lender amid concerns about its regulatory position. At the time, Polymarket was still subject to restrictions preventing US customers from using its platform following a CFTC settlement.

The revelation comes as prediction markets move increasingly into the financial mainstream, making access to traditional banking rather important.

Kalshi’s Michigan geofence has an update problem

suswati suswati 1:06 pm

Kalshi has rolled out its first full geofence in Michigan, but there’s a small catch: users apparently need to install an optional app update for it to work.

InGame reports that a journalist in Michigan could still place sports trades using an Indiana-registered account before updating the app. Once updated, GeoComply kicked in and sports markets were blocked as intended. Kalshi reportedly didn’t alert users that an update was required.

Kalshi has implemented true geofencing for the first time, blocking sports trades in Nevada and Michigan, but the system in Michigan only works after an app update that is not required.

An InGame reporter was able to place bets on sporting events from Michigan, using an account… pic.twitter.com/PDYOArp5Sc

— InGame (@InGameHQ) August 14, 2026

CFTC asks whether mention markets say too much

suswati suswati 1:05 pm

Federal regulators are taking a closer look at prediction markets where traders bet on whether someone will utter a particular word or phrase. The CFTC is reportedly examining “mention markets” over concerns they could be unusually easy to manipulate.

Kalshi has since pulled its sports-related mention markets “until further notice,” although markets involving politicians and corporate earnings remain available. The scrutiny follows controversy surrounding a Trump teleprompter operator who allegedly profited from advance knowledge of speeches.

NEW: The CFTC has launched a probe into prediction market "mention markets" as a category, where people bet millions on whether President Trump, sportscasters, executives on earning calls say a word or not.

Focus of probe is whether this kind of betting is susceptible to…

— Bobby Allyn (@BobbyAllyn) August 14, 2026

Israeli Air Force Officer faces Polymarket betting case

suswati suswati 1:01 pm

An Israeli Air Force officer is reportedly facing criminal proceedings after allegedly using classified information to place Polymarket bets linked to military strikes in Iran and Yemen.

According to Israeli media, prosecutors allege the officer used sensitive operational knowledge to gain an edge on prediction markets — which is certainly one way to redefine “insider trading.”

The case adds another uncomfortable regulatory question for Polymarket as authorities worldwide scrutinize who is betting, what they know, and when they know it.

Prediction markets are supposed to reward good forecasting. Having access to classified military intelligence is, apparently, rather too good.

Novig tells Wisconsin: see you in court

suswati suswati 1:00 pm

Novig has added Wisconsin to its growing collection of legal opponents, suing state officials in federal court over sports event contracts. The newly CFTC-approved exchange argues its contracts are federally regulated derivatives, meaning Wisconsin shouldn’t get to treat them as ordinary gambling.

Wisconsin may beg to differ. It’s already pursuing Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com over similar offerings, while a federal judge recently declined to stop the state’s enforcement campaign.

Novig, which has also sued New York, Massachusetts, New Mexico and Washington, now wants an injunction.

At this rate, its legal department may need its own prediction market.

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