The transformation is stark in districts such as Hailakandi in the Barak Valley. Once represented by three AIUDF MLAs, the district now has only two seats after delimitation. The newly created Algapur-Katlicherra constituency has emerged as a heavily Muslim-majority seat, while Hailakandi itself has been recast with a Hindu majority.

This redrawing has triggered an unintended but politically significant consequence — multiple leaders from the same social base now contesting against each other. In Algapur-Katlicherra, three former AIUDF MLAs — Nijam Uddin Choudhury, Suzam Uddin Laskar, and Zakir Hussain — found themselves vying for the same electorate, with Congress leading the contest.

A similar pattern is visible in Mandia in Barpeta district, a sprawling constituency formed by merging earlier segments. Here, leaders from the Congress, AIUDF, and Trinamool Congress (TMC0 are locked in a high-stakes contest. The Congress is again leading here.

This signals that in a highly polarised election, the minority have reposed their faith with the Congress. Yet, with shrinkage of minority-dominated seats, this has failed to help Congress shore up its number of seats.

From dispersion to concentration

The Opposition has consistently argued that delimitation has “packed” minority voters into fewer constituencies. Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi has accused the BJP of “hijacking” the process, alleging that it split anti-BJP regions for electoral gain.

Political analyst Yogendra Yadav has pointed to the reconfiguration of the Kaziranga Lok Sabha seat — earlier Kaliabor — as emblematic of this approach. Minority-dominated Assembly segments were shifted out, while areas favourable to the BJP were brought in, altering electoral arithmetic.

The ripple effects were evident in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP’s Kamakhya Prasad Tasa won Kaziranga, while Congress’s Pradyot Bordoloi secured Nagaon — a seat that had itself been reshaped into a minority-heavy constituency.

In western Assam, the redrawing of Barpeta and Dhubri further illustrates the shift. Dhubri became an overwhelmingly Muslim-majority constituency with over 85% Bengali-speaking Muslim voters, while Barpeta saw its minority share drop significantly. The result: a landslide Congress victory in Dhubri with a margin of over 10 lakh votes, contrasted with an NDA win in Barpeta.

Disappearance of constituencies, displacement of leaders

Delimitation has also erased or reconfigured several constituencies altogether. Seats like Dhing and Jamunamukh — long considered minority strongholds — have disappeared or been replaced with new boundaries.

AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal has alleged that the exercise was “masterminded by the BJP” to “cut down Muslim votes”. The party’s organisational base has struggled to adapt to these changes, with leaders forced to shift constituencies or contest in unfamiliar terrains.

Even within the Congress, the reshuffle has caused friction. Sitting MLAs have moved seats due to reservation changes or boundary shifts, often facing resistance from local voters who view them as outsiders.

A fragmented Opposition, an expanding NDA

The cumulative effect of these changes is visible in the current tally. While the BJP is currently leading in 78 seats, its allies — the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) — are adding to the NDA’s comfortable majority. The Congress, despite holding ground in some pockets, is trailing far behind.

Interestingly, delimitation may also have opened new avenues for the NDA within minority areas. The AGP, an ally of the BJP, has fielded several Muslim candidates, offering what some voters perceive as a “middle ground”.

Ground reports by The Indian Express suggest that there is a growing sense among the minorities in Assam that aligning with the ruling coalition may ensure access to state benefits.