Geopolitical developments, the trajectory of global interest rates and evolving supply-demand dynamics are likely to remain key factors impacting the commodity market in Samvat 2083.

Analysts said oil prices as well as bullion rates would continue to be key drivers of the Indian markets. 

The World Bank expects oil and most metals to ease from the elevated 2026 annual averages. It also feels there is a bull case for gold which rests on central bank purchases and fiscal uncertainities. 

Crude is expected to fall 20 per cent but if global uncertainties remain then prices may rise.

“Samvat 2083 is likely to remain volatile for oil prices,” said Navneet Damani, head of research-commodities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

He expects some normalisation in oil prices if geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran ease, with Brent settling at $75-80 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) returning to around $70.

“However, any escalation before the new political developments in the US in January could trigger fresh volatility. The next three months will be crucial, and we will watch how crude prices settle within a broader expected range of $70-120 a barrel,” said Damani.

 Vedika Narvekar, research analyst – commodities and currencies at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, sees Brent crude oil trading in the $80-110 range. 

“Oil is a tug-of-war between supply risk and diplomacy,” she said. Narvekar added, “Product markets are tight, diesel is stretched into winter and inventories are shrinking. Against that, talks with Iran, the midterm result and the G7 stock release of 100 million barrels cap the upside.” 

Nonetheless, Narvekar said that if de-escalations, a US-Iran deal, and supply normalisation occur, oil may return below $70 a barrel.

She also said gold would be the steadiest of the three in Samvat 2083.

“For gold, central bank buying, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, a US deficit near $2 trillion and any stagflation scare support prices. But a possible December Fed hike and high yields are the main risks,” she said.

Narvekar sees MCX gold in the range of ₹1.3 lakh-₹1.75 lakh, with $4,900 (about ₹1.75 lakh) by end-2027.

Damani recommends accumulating gold on dips around $3,800-3,900, with targets of $4,200 in the short term and $4,500-4,700 over the medium term. 

At a dollar-rupee assumption of 96, he sees ₹1.35 lakh as an accumulation zone, with targets of ₹1.48 lakh and ₹1.6 lakh-₹1.68 lakh.

Silver, which fell over 55 per cent from its record highs in Samvat 2082, could continue to remain volatile.

Narvekar said silver has a stronger supply story, with a sixth straight deficit expected in 2026 and five-year shortfalls above 800 million ounces.

“But solar thrifting and artificial intelligence (AI)-linked sentiment keep it at a high beta compared to gold, with $48 as support, where a break opens $45,” she said. 

The outlook follows a year of sharp divergence in commodity performance. Brent crude spot prices surged 60.4 per cent in Samvat 2082, after declining 17.7 per cent in the previous Samvat. 

Gold and silver, on the other hand, fell 6.6 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively, in international markets. 

However, domestic prices remained resilient, with gold gaining 10.8 per cent and silver rising 12.2 per cent. They were supported by the rupee depreciation.