The European Union yesterday extended its various sanctions against Myanmar for another year, in ​an effort to maintain pressure on the new quasi-civilian government in Naypyidaw.

In a statement yesterday, the European Council said that the decision was taken “in view of the continuing grave situation in Myanmar, including actions undermining democracy, as well as serious human rights violations.” The sanctions will now be in place until April 30, 2027.

“The ​EU reiterates its strongest condemnation of the actions taken ​by the Myanmar military since the 2021 coup d’etat,” the European Council said. “It condemns the continuing grave human rights violations, which persist alongside widespread restrictions on fundamental freedoms and a climate of fear – and calls on the end of all forms of violence and the release of all prisoners arbitrarily detained.”

The Council said that it will ⁠withhold ​direct financial assistance to the ​administration and suspend any aid that could be seen as legitimizing ​the military leadership.

The move comes three weeks after Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the 2021 coup, was appointed president by the military-dominated parliament, following tightly circumscribed elections in December and January. These were condemned by most independent observers as a sham process designed to perpetuate military rule and normalize Naypyidaw’s relations with the outside world.

The “transition” has so far been recognized by only a handful of countries, among them China, whose Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited the country for talks with Min Aung Hlaing on April 26. The EU’s continued imposition of sanctions is a sign that, short of significant political reforms, Western nations are unlikely to be taken in by the government’s new civilian façade.

The reality is that despite the “transition” from military to quasi-civilian rule, the situation in Myanmar remains febrile and unstable. On April 24, Min Aung Hlaing issued new emergency ordinances imposing military control in 60 townships for 90 days, citing the need to “end armed terrorism” and restore “the ​rule of law.” The United Nations says ⁠that around 3.6 million people are currently displaced and more than 22,000 remain in detention, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.

In light of this, the EU’s announcement is not particularly surprising, and the priority for Myanmar’s new administration is probably to pursue normalization with its regional neighbors. Since taking office as president, Min Aung Hlaing has pushed hard to mend his administration’s relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has barred it from the bloc’s high-level summits since late 2021. In his inaugural speech, he pledged to restore “normal relations” with ASEAN and later said that Myanmar was cooperating “as much as possible” with the bloc.

In this goal, Min Aung Hlaing has a willing partner in Thailand, which has long argued that engagement with the military junta is preferable to the alternatives. Last week, Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow traveled to Naypyidaw for talks with Min Aung Hlaing, declaring to reporters that Bangkok wished to support Myanmar’s “return to ASEAN.”

“Our policy is to have steps in our interactions to bring them back,” he said. “But certainly, for them to return to ASEAN, they must be able to proceed and respond to the concerns from ASEAN.”

ASEAN’s framework for normalization is the Five-Point Consensus, which was formulated shortly after the coup. This calls for an immediate cessation of violence and inclusive dialogue involving “all parties” to the country’s various interlocking conflicts. However, the military junta refused to implement the most important elements of the consensus, prompting the bloc to exclude the junta’s political representatives from its summits.

In pursuit of normalization, Min Aung Hlaing’s new regime has taken a number of conciliatory actions. Last week, he ordered the release of the country’s ousted president Win Myint as part of a mass prisoner amnesty, while reducing the prison sentence of ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been in military custody since the coup. Naypyidaw has also called for rebel groups to join new peace talks within 100 days, in line with Min Aung Hlaing’s earlier pledge to “support social reconciliation, justice, and peace,” although this has unsurprisingly been rejected by some of the largest ethnic armed groups.

Full normalization with ASEAN is likely to require more action on Aung San Suu Kyi. Late last week, the Philippines, ASEAN’s current chair, said that the recent amnesty ‌was a positive step towards inclusive national dialogue, but called for the release of more political prisoners, including the 80-year-old former leader.

“We reaffirm our commitment to assisting Myanmar, as an integral part of ASEAN, to achieve a peaceful and durable solution to the political ​crisis in the country,” the Philippines said in a chairman’s statement.

During their talks in Naypyidaw, Sihasak said that Min Aung Hlaing ​informed him that Aung San Suu Kyi was being “well looked after.”

“Many ASEAN countries are worried about Aung San Suu Kyi and her ​well-being, and he said they are considering good things, so this could be a good thing,” Sihasak said.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s release from house arrest in November 2010 was a key moment in the reforms that the military introduced over the course of the 2010s, which culminated in the election of her National League for Democracy in 2015. It remains unclear whether such a move is thinkable now. Perhaps the bigger question is whether it would be enough to normalize relations with ASEAN – let alone the EU and other Western governments.