India appears to be facing a widening rainfall deficit, with the current regional wet spell likely to fade by end-August as the influence of drought-inducing El Nino strengthens, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

A leaner rainfall trend could persist through September due to El Nino’s influence on the South-West monsoon. In effect, India may already have seen the best of this year’s monsoon, with withdrawal expected to begin from North-West India around mid-September, the European weather agency’s outlook said.

India’s private weather forecaster Skymet has downgraded its outlook for the South-West monsoon to 85 per cent of the long-period average. On Monday, it predicted a 70 per cent chance of drought. The all-India monsoon deficit stood at 13 per cent as of August 16 and is expected to widen through September.

East, N-E worst hit

East and North-East India, the worst-hit, have a 27 per cent deficit, followed by the South Peninsula at 21 per cent. North-West India has a 12 per cent deficit, while Central India remains relatively comfortable down just 1 per cent, according to India Meteorological Department data.

Among individual meteorological subdivisions, Arunachal Pradesh’s deficit is the highest at 39 per cent, closely followed by Assam and Meghalaya at 38 per cent each. Punjab and Coastal Andhra Pradesh are both 36 per cent below normal, while Rayalaseema is at 35 per cent.

The government’s drought monitoring portal showed that more than 45 per cent of the 6,363 tehsils in the country are rain deficient so far this monsoon.

Other agencies

Last week, the Climate Prediction Center of the US, an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said El Nino was strengthening, with a more than 90 per cent chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27.

The rainfall projections come despite the IMD locating a low-pressure area near Kolkata on Monday, with the monsoon holding firm over East and North-East India. The IMD said the best prospects for meaningful additional rain through the rest of August remain concentrated over East and North-East India.

For much of the country, the monsoon may now be entering its leaner final stretch. However, the Bay of Bengal may witness the formation of at least one more low-pressure system before August ends.

kharif Sowing

Despite deficient rainfall, the kharif sowing deficit has narrowed to less than 1 per cent in the week ended August 14 from 21 per cent as of July 5.

Paddy and nutri-cereals are witnessing acreage deficits of 3.7 per cent and 2.4 per cent, respectively. Overall, kharif sowing has crossed 1,000 lakh hectares.

Published on August 17, 2026