Keir Starmer Photographer: Ben Stansall/Getty Images Photo by Ben Stansall /Photographer: Ben Stansall/Getty

Article content

(Bloomberg) — Another disastrous week for Keir Starmer has left Andy Burnham a step closer to replacing him as prime minister this summer.

Article content

If Burnham wins a parliamentary by-election in Makerfield, north-west England on Thursday, he is poised to move quickly to oust Starmer and secure what he hopes will be a uncontested handover of power, some of his supporters told Bloomberg, speaking on condition of anonymity discussing plans that aren’t public.

Article content

Article content

Article content

Their calculation is that the dramatic resignation of Defense Secretary John Healey on Thursday has ended any hope Starmer had of survival and left him too weak to fight on. Healey quit unexpectedly, in protest at Starmer’s refusal to agree to sufficiently higher military expenditure. In an incendiary resignation letter, he effectively accused the premier of failing to defend the country.

Article content

Article content

A defiant Starmer insisted on Friday that he would contest any leadership election triggered by Burnham. “I don’t think it should happen but if it does then I will fight,” he said in an interview with the BBC. “That’s not about personal vanity. It’s not about stubbornness. It’s out of a very deep sense of duty.”

Article content

Yet Burnham’s supporters think Starmer will have little choice but to relent in the days after the Makerfield election. In order to challenge for the premier’s job, Burnham first needs to win the seat, an outcome that’s widely expected by Labour members of Parliament, bookmakers and pollsters.

Article content

The Greater Manchester mayor’s allies believe he can then quickly secure the public backing of more than 250 Labour MPs, far above the 81 needed to trigger a challenge under party rules, demonstrating Starmer no longer has the confidence of his party.

Article content

Article content

They calculate rival contenders — including former Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Al Carns, who resigned as a junior defense minister alongside Healey — simply don’t have the numbers to enter a contest.

Article content

Article content

The pivotal question, they said, is how the cabinet reacts in the days after the Makerfield result, assuming Burnham wins. His supporters want ministers to tell Starmer to agree to an orderly handover. 

Article content

Until Healey walked out, Starmer’s allies believed he retained a path to survival. Most senior cabinet members would resist Burnham’s overtures and back the PM to stay, they thought. But government officials now say Healey’s departure has shifted that calculus, making it more likely the cabinet collectively tells the prime minister he shouldn’t contest Burnham.

Article content

Burnham is said by supporters to be open to either an immediate takeover or an orderly transition in which Starmer agrees a date later this summer. They denied he was planning to delay a challenge until after the Manchester mayoralty election that will be triggered if he wins Makerfield.

Article content

The mood among Starmer’s allies is souring. Some, previously loyal, are now openly critical of the premier.