For a war that will soon be entering the seventh month that started with no known objectives or an end game, the Middle East is getting ready for yet another painful twist as Washington gets ready to unleash its “never before seen” economic campaign designed to bring the regime in Teheran to its knees. In what has been billed as the ‘Economic Warfare” or ‘Economic Fury”, the Trump administration is looking to totally isolate Iran economically and this would include inflicting secondary sanctions on any country or institution giving the regime a breather of sorts.
The latest thinking in Washington is perhaps the fourth try to end a war on its terms. First came the massive bombings of Iran’s nuclear sites and energy and infrastructure sites; that was closely coordinated by Israel’s assassination of civilian and military leaderships; followed by the naval blockade of the waterways in and around the Strait of Hormuz. And now the fully economic punitive route that administration officials believe would make military campaigns unnecessary. And as before Tehran has warned nations against participating in what it calls “economic terrorism”, a message to the neighbouring Gulf nations that have already been impacted in the ongoing conflict.
Unlike before
In the present circumstances, it may not be easy for Iran’s leadership to brush off the latest American threats as something it has seen or endured before. Iran, along with North Korea, has been one of the most sanctioned nations in the world over the last five decades facing the economic and financial wrath of the US, UN and Europeans for a variety of reasons including on the human rights front. The fourth phase of the ongoing mess in the Middle East poses different and difficult challenges to the various actors.
For the leadership in Tehran, continuing to make the point verbally that it has played this sanctions game with the US since 1979 and has shown its resilience is going to be difficult as internal circumstances are quite different. The economic situation is pretty severe with inflation at around 65 per cent; the Ayatollahs along with the Revolutionary Guards have had to confront a determined and restive population protesting human rights abuses. Fobbing all these things off on external subversive elements and tightening the stranglehold could make things worse. For that matter appointing brutal crackdown managers anticipating unrest may be difficult to bring results this time around.
Washington too would have to realise isolating Iran on land, air and sea will undoubtedly be painful, but a fully successful operation would require cooperation of not just nations in the Middle East. For instance to impose a land blockade would require cooperation of countries bordering Iran like Iraq. Pakistan, Afghanistan and Armenia. No doubt China is said to take in nearly 80 per cent of Iran’s oil, not all of which is direct but from smaller refineries that may not be within the reach of Washington or Beijing.
The Trump administration will get official relief from the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 100 per cent tariffs but only when the House of Representatives also passes the approved Senate version. As it is a few Democrats and Republicans in the chamber have expressed reservations. But imposing secondary sanctions against China is dicey as the last two years have shown that Beijing is not interested in playing soft. It has retaliated with sanctions of its own and escalated to prohibiting exports of the highly dependent rare earth minerals to the US. Also, with the much anticipated visit of President Xi Jinping, would Washington want to take the risk?
In all the talk of a new line of thinking on the war, the administration and Republicans have to be mindful of the Mid Term elections of November 3 where further spike in food and oil prices will impact lawmakers seeking re-election.
The writer is a senior journalist who has reported from Washington DC on North America and United Nations
Published on August 24, 2026
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